There are lies, damn lies and then there are the world rankings, a mathematical formulation that would have us believe on the eve of the 2010 PGA Championship at Whistling Straits, as it would on the eve of any major championship, that the most likely winner is the player ranked No1.
That man is Tiger Woods, as it has been for more than five years, but with the world No1's game plumbing hitherto uncharted depths – at least for him – it seems not even he believes he is the man to beat this week.
Whistling Straits, a long and relentless test on the shore of Lake Michigan, is not the place to recover from an 18-over-par tournament. Nor is it the place to find a golf swing although Woods, who today was seen in consultation with the swing coach Sean Foley for a second successive day, appears to have found the man who can help guide him out of the wilderness.
Foley is said to be a "genius" at what he does. He had better be, and he had better work quickly if Woods is to play himself into one of the eight automatic slots on the team or find favour with the US Ryder Cup captain, Corey Pavin.
"He is high up on my list,'' Pavin said when asked about the world No1's prospects of receiving one of his four captain's picks – a diplomatic choice of words which led to an angry exchange with a US television journalist who had earlier reported Pavin as saying: "Of course I'm going to pick him, he's the world No1."
It was an eventful day for the US captain, who moments earlier came to the defence of his European counterpart Colin Montgomerie, who was being asked questions about his personal life, saying: "Let's stick to golf subjects here." No doubt the start of tomorrow's opening round at Whistling Straits and the emphasis it will bring to events on the course will come as blessed relief to both captains, although it is questionable whether such relief will be shared by those who will go into tomorrow's first round believing they may have a better chance of winning a major championship.
Golf's burgeoning equality has been a conversation topic in recent months and with Woods woefully out of form, Phil Mickelson recovering from illness and Lee Westwood recuperating from injury in Portugal, it will be a recurring theme over the next four days. At least two dozen players have justifiable hopes of leaving with the Wannamaker Trophy in their arms, although perhaps no one will approach the task ahead with as much glee as Rory McIlroy, who was in no mood to understate his optimism.
"There are going to be a lot of guys here thinking that it is the right time for them to break through, and I'm definitely one of those guys," he said. "And you can never write the likes of Tiger and Phil off. But I definitely think guys have a lot better chance coming into this event with those two guys not playing great and Lee obviously not playing."
Confident words from a confident young man but for all his brilliance and for all that he has already had a couple of top-five finishes in majors, the 2009 US PGA at Hazeltine and at this year's Open, the young Ulsterman has yet to really contend over the back nine on Sunday. He has proved his talent as a player, but can he show his mettle in the sport's most exacting moment?
Then there is also the challenge presented by the course itself which, visually, looks like the links lands of McIlroy's native Ireland but which plays more like a US Open venue. There are upwards of 500 bunkers on the property and there is more than enough rough to open a highly profitable hay-concession stand. Throwing in swarms of mosquitoes and the promise of thunderstorms, as well as strengthening winds at the weekend, and what you have is a test of attrition as much as an examination of ability. In other words, it is unlikely to be pretty but it is sure to be compelling.
In such circumstances, the victory usually goes not to the player with the most talent but the player with sufficient talent and the greatest amount of determination, a plodder rather than a dashing blade such as McIlroy or Anthony Kim.
Wisconsin's favourite son Steve Stricker, the world No4, would have a chance to ascend to the No1 spot where he to win on Sunday and as the patron saint of plodders, not to mention a deadly putter (always a must when par is the height of a player's ambition), there are many thinking he could do exactly that.
There have been mentions in pre-tournament despatches, too, for the likes of Jeff Overton and Sean O'Hair, two of the better young US players showing good form on the PGA Tour in recent weeks.
Victory for any of those three Americans would mean another fresh member to the first major winner's club, along with this year's other new recruits Graeme McDowell and Louis Oosthuizen. There is something to be said for change and new faces, but the suspicion is that Whistling Straits is not a place for ingenues, young or even, like Stricker, 43 and middle-aged. It is a place for experience, for the tough-minded like Padraig Harrington.
The Irishman has finished inside the top-10 at his last two events, in Ireland and in Akron, and spoke earlier this week about rediscovering the game that won him three majors in the space of 12 months. If he has, then this week could belong to him.
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